By Andrew Beaton and Louise Radnofsky
The New York Jets decided to move on from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Illustration: WSJ, Brooks Von Arx/ZUMA Press
Let’s not mince words: Aaron Rodgers looks a lot like a quarterback who is completely washed up.
He’s 41 years old and coming off perhaps the worst season of his career. His physical skills look far diminished from his peak in Green Bay, where he won four Most Valuable Player awards. Even the lowly New York Jets have seemingly decided they would be better off without him.
In short, every bit of conventional wisdom suggests it’s time for him to hang up his cleats.
But it turns out there’s reason to believe that Rodgers will prove to be a far better player than he showed during his failed stint with the Jets. And it’s down to something that should actually improve as he gets another year older: his surgically repaired Achilles tendon.
Rodgers’s time with the Jets began as disastrously as possible when he tore his Achilles on the opening drive of his debut game in 2023. When he came back last season, his physical limitations and the team’s struggles made for one of the most spectacular failed experiments in recent NFL history.
But specialists in orthopaedic medicine say that’s not terribly surprising. While athletes often return to action within a year of surgery for an Achilles tear, studies show that their performance typically takes a hit in that first season back.
The research also suggests that they get closer to full strength in subsequent years—meaning Rodgers might just be poised to shock the football world in 2025.
“The first season is probably the hardest to come back from,” says Dr. Spencer Stein, an assistant professor of orthopedic surgery at NYU’s medical school. “Players do get better over season two and three compared to one.”
Aaron Rodgers suffered an Achilles injury in his first start for the New York Jets in 2023. Photo: Seth Wenig/Associated Press
Rodgers hasn’t said definitively whether he plans to come back for another season, but one thing that’s clear is that he won’t be suiting up for the Jets. Two years after trading for him, the team has already decided to move on from their starting quarterback, making Rodgers available to sign elsewhere when free agency starts next week.
Any club evaluating Rodgers will have to reach a decision on whether he’s a worthwhile stopgap and still capable of spearheading a playoff run. That process figures to include a study of his play from last season—and an understanding of how his Achilles might hold up.
Fortunately, there’s real research that teams can draw on, including an entire NFL Orthopaedic Surgery Outcomes Database compiled for a 2016 paper. And its conclusion about athletes undergoing Achilles repairs suggests a Rodgers bounceback shouldn’t be discounted.
“While they experienced longer recovery periods and decreases in games played and performance at postoperative season 1,” the paper states, “they were able to recover to baseline levels during postoperative seasons 2 and 3.”
Doctors say there are several reasons for this. Just because an athlete is capable of playing again after Achilles surgery doesn’t mean all their muscles and tendons are at full strength after weeks of not walking. There’s also the mental aspect of getting used to playing again—and feeling confident about the repair. That all tends to improve with time.
Dr. Yoni Rosenblatt, chief executive of True Sports Physical Therapy in Maryland, says that even when Rodgers came back last year, he was likely functioning at around 70% of his normal capacity—but that by the time next season rolls around, he should be closer to 100%.
“That’s when you start to see guys fly,” says Rosenblatt, whose clients include NFL players and Olympians. “It’s usually around that 18-month to 2-year period where an athlete forgets he has an Achilles repair.”
Whether all of that is enough to persuade another team to stake its future on Rodgers remains to be seen. But it also bodes well for another free-agent quarterback.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins returned from an Achillies tear but was benched after a disappointing season. Photo: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Kirk Cousins, 36, also tore his Achilles in 2023. He then had such a disappointing season for the Atlanta Falcons that he was benched by year-end. With the team moving forward with 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix Jr., that could make Cousins a trade target for other clubs, plenty of whom need quarterbacks in an offseason when not many strong options are available.
For Rodgers, the Las Vegas Raiders are one potential landing spot, and these days they’re being run by a former quarterback who knows a thing or two about defying expectations into his 40s. That would be none other than Tom Brady.
There’s also another destination that would be so convenient that Rodgers wouldn’t even have to get used to a new home field. That’s because the team that has been widely speculated as the most likely landing spot happens to be the New York Giants.
